“The Republican Party Is Very Weak”: Political Commentator Reassures Democrats About Biden’s Falling Poll Numbers

Michelle HollandNov 27, 2023

Minute Read

Amidst fears that President Joe Biden’s declining poll numbers could spell a Republican victory next year, Democrat Party strategist and commentator Simon Rosenberg has shared his belief that all hope is not lost yet. The expert, who correctly predicted that a “red wave” would not materialize during last year’s midterms, has said that “Republicans are in far greater trouble than is generally understood.”

Dwindling Support

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In recent polls, Biden has been either tied with or behind Donald Trump, who is the frontrunner to win the GOP nomination for the 2024 presidential race. Trump has overtaken him in key swing states that could end up determining the outcome of the election, despite Biden winning these in 2020.

Biden’s Foreign Policy

Biden is losing favor with more traditionally progressive demographics in the party’s base, such as African Americans, Latinos, and younger voters, many of whom have objected to his unconditional support of Israel. With the death toll in Gaza at over 14,000, many progressives have vowed they will never vote for Biden again after the president continues to rcallsalling for a ceasefire.

Domestic Achievements

Though Biden has accomplished much of what he set out to do, with particular achievements for the country’s economy, infrastructure, and student loan relief, this has been largely overshadowed by his stance on Israel and Palestine. Many experts, however, are urging people to vote for Biden if only because of the threat Trump poses to democracy.

A Hopeful Pattern

In a new interview, Rosenberg shared that Democrats are still “winning across the country, in every kind of race — mayoral races, school board races, in governor’s races in red states, and on ballot initiatives,” and explained that this trend leaves him “deeply optimistic about 2024.”

Republican Party Weakness

This pattern, according to Rosenberg, demonstrates that “The Democratic Party is very strong right now. By comparison, the Republican Party is very weak institutionally.” He suggested that the GOP is being threatened by its internal divisions and enormous public rejection of its stance on abortion.

Defeating MAGA

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Rosenberg went on to explain that “fear and opposition to the MAGA movement” has been a huge driving force in encouraging people to vote, and that “if we have a normal election the Democrats should win next year — even with Joe Biden and all of his limitations.”

A Large Margin

Stressing the importance of a clear election result, Rosenberg analyzed: “If the Democrats win the election by eight to 10 points, none of the chicanery and trickery by the Republicans is going to matter. But we must win by a big margin.”

The Democrats’ Record

“The idea that as the electorate gets bigger, it gets more Republican is false,” Rosenberg claimed, before adding that “the Democrats have won more votes in the last seven out of eight elections than the Republicans. No political party has done that in American history.” He emphasized the “big anti-MAGA majority” in the U.S. and Trump’s likely difficulty in picking up new votes.

GOP Divisions

Rosenberg also proposed that Trump is not popular enough with Republicans to win, noting that “he’s only getting 60% of the Republican field right now” and that he needs “95% of Republicans to even have a remote chance of winning.” Among the GOP members critical of Trump are many Senate Republicans, of which only 12 of 49 have endorsed the former president’s reelection bid.

Trump’s Legal Issues

Trump’s legal issues — including four criminal cases — were also cited by Rosenberg as one of the biggest obstacles reducing his chances of a 2024 win. Rosenberg also pointed to Trump’s role in the overturning of Roe vs Wade, a decision that has been resoundingly unpopular in the country. Trump was responsible for staffing the Supreme Court with more conservative judges who then made the controversial verdict.

Rosenberg’s Conclusion

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Rosenberg predicted that Biden will eventually regain popularity and that it’s unlikely his detractors cross over to Trump. He claimed that though Democrats have more “episodic voters” than Republicans, this is irrelevant as “when real voting takes place, the Democrats are bringing the heightened intensity.”

Calling for Reform

If Biden wins the 2024 election, Rosenberg expressed his opinion that “reform is long overdue” and that democratic reform needs to be made, such as abolishing the electoral college, as a way to “introduce an ambitious and bold reform agenda.” He attributed current polling numbers to low turnout, and remains hopeful, but insists that America is “screwed” if Trump is reelected: “We have to recognize that with Donald Trump it’s always the worst case scenario.”

Feeling Optimistic

People online were encouraged by Rosenberg’s analysis, with one Democrat supporter writing: “We’ve still got a LOT of work to do to turn out the vote next year, but as Simon says: I’d much rather be us than them (meaning R’s.)”

Democratic Strength

Another person concurred, “The Democratic Party is strong. The Democrats have a tendency to let right-wing dooming into its discourse and make things feel way worse than they are. The Dems have overperformed by something like 8 or 9 points in 24 of the 30 special elections of the past year. This is the data that matters, not these polls.”

Defending Biden’s Stance

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Others defended Biden’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war, with one contributor writing: “The whole situation is a rock and a hard place. I’m under the impression that Biden’s first priority has been keeping it from becoming a much bigger war.”

Rightful Criticism

On the other hand, some Democrats felt that Biden deserved the backlash for his support of Israel. One poster declared: “Dude literally said there is no red line, and that Israel can do what it wants. How is openly giving the go-ahead for mass killings and genocide keeping it from “becoming a bigger war”?” Whereas someone else stated, “It’s very easy to stop funding Israel.”

A Deeper Issue

Another forum user proclaimed, “We have supported Jim Crow in Israel for at least half a century. The problem is bigger than Joe Biden.” Overall, people felt that Trump would be much worse for the Middle East, and hoped people would show out in the polls for Biden despite a lot of the criticism aimed at him being justified.