“Polls Don’t Mean Much”: Republican Pollster Reassures Democrats That a Biden Victory Is Still Likely

Michelle HollandNov 30, 2023

Minute Read

Recent polls show that more Americans intend to vote for Trump than Biden in the 2024 presidential election, concerning Democrats across the country. Despite this, Republican pollster Bill McInturff told The Atlantic’s Robert Brownstein that things are actually much worse for Trump than they look.

Low Approval Ratings

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has been dwindling in recent weeks, with the figure currently hovering at around 39 percent. Meanwhile, approximately 55 percent of Americans disapprove of the current commander-in-chief, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Donald Trump’s Popularity

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Former president and candidate for the 2024 GOP nomination Donald Trump is also struggling to win over the majority of the public. Recent polls have his reception at around 53 percent unfavorable and 42 percent favorable.

2024 Voting Intention

Meanwhile, a recent poll conducted by Emerson College revealed that if Biden and Trump go head-to-head next November, 47 percent of participants would vote for Trump, and just 43 percent for Biden. In a different poll with Robert F. Kennedy, Jill Stein, and Cornel West as additional options, 42 percent declared they would vote for Trump whereas Biden received 36 percent of support.

Trump’s Legal Battles

These numbers will shock many as they suggest that Trump’s numerous ongoing legal battles haven’t hurt his popularity. Trump is currently embroiled in six legal cases, four of which are criminal. Recently, he has been on trial for business fraud in New York, with the rest of his cases set to go to trial starting from next year.

The Election Interference Case

The case everybody will be watching is the one about Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Trump was federally indicted for his alleged role in the conspiracy and the January 6 attacks on the Capitol Building. The trial is currently due to start in March 2024.

Turning on Biden

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Much of Biden’s decreasing popularity has been attributed to his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas. Since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israeli civilians, Israel’s military response has killed around 15,000 Palestinians in Gaza. Biden’s refusal to call for a ceasefire and strongly condemn Israel has caused many former Democratic voters to turn on him, especially young progressives.

McInturff Reassures Democrats

Despite this, Bill McInturff has reassured Trump critics that there is no major cause for alarm. “I have never seen a number like this NBC result between an incumbent and ‘challenger,’” McInturff stated. “If 2024 is a Biden versus Trump campaign, we are in uncharted waters.”

Trump’s Distasteful Rhetoric

McInturff has suggested that Trump’s unsavory rhetoric, such as calling his opponents “vermin”, will polarize the public, especially key swing voters who may be put off by Trump’s coarseness. As a result, Biden could win back those who voted for him in 2020 but have since wavered.

McInturff’s Analysis

McInturff continued, “In the 2022 and 2023 elections, a crucial slice of voters down on the economy and Biden’s performance voted for Democrats in the key races anyway, largely because they viewed the Trump-aligned GOP alternatives as too extreme.”

Shaping the 2024 Election

He concluded, “Eventually, Trump’s excesses could shape the 2024 election as much as Biden’s record will,” providing hope to Democrats that the race is far from a lost cause.

Back for Round Two

As the incumbent president, Biden is almost guaranteed as the pick to be the Democratic nominee in the 2024 presidential election. Trump, meanwhile, is the frontrunner for the Republican Party nomination, with competitors such as Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy trailing far behind him.

An Optimistic Sign

Some people online agreed with McInturff and felt positive about Biden’s chances in the upcoming election. One commenter wrote: “The campaign hasn’t begun and Trump hasn’t spent enough time in the limelight for people to see how unhinged he is.”

No Reintroduction Necessary

Someone else disagreed, “Isn’t the problem with that, that… he isn’t introducing himself to the public? He’s already been president for four years. We all know who he is,” which prompted another person to say that “people have short term memories” and might’ve forgotten “how crazy he is.”

The Wrong Questions

Another poster speculated, “They are asking the questions wrong. Let’s see a poll of how many Americans would vote against Trump instead of for Biden,” suggesting that when it comes down to it, people could come out in droves to vote for Biden if only as a means to stop Trump.

Jumping Ship

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One forum user theorized: “Nobody who supports Biden is thinking about voting for Trump. Many people are abandoning Trump, maybe not to vote D but support shrinks every day with everyone who is not a MAGA lunatic.” However, others expressed concern that some former Biden voters could abstain, thus handing the election to Trump.

A Wake-Up Call

Many forum members hoped that the recent polls would be a wake-up call to those wavering on their support for Biden and stressed the importance of the upcoming election in maintaining Democracy. “Whether you believe this poll or not, you should still take it as a cautionary tale and get active or at the very least, vote.”

Staying Positive

Though people found the polls slightly concerning, many referred to the Democrats’ performance in the local elections that occurred in early November as a reason to stay positive. “Obviously these polls don’t mean much since it’s so far out, and the election shows that it’s not near as bleak,” one individual declared. Another concurred that following a successful election for Democrats, “I find these polls very hard to believe.”