“There’s No Shortage of Incumbents Who Win”: The Historical Hurdles Trump Must Face To Take Back the White House

Jo ShawDec 1, 2023

Minute Read

A professor of government and politics at Maryland University recently provided his analysis of a potential Trump vs Biden rematch to NBC News. In his article, he highlighted that historically, the incumbent would win the Presidential race but warned that the circumstances surrounding a 2024 Presidential rematch were “a historic first.”

Historical Trends That May Factor in 2024 Election

David Karol, a government and politics professor at the University of Maryland, shared insights with NBC News regarding various patterns observed in rematch elections and how the trends could raise light on what a rematch between Trump and Biden may look like.

The 6th Presidential Rematch in History

Editorial credit: Nicole Glass Photography/Shutterstock.

According to the NBC News article, a potential rematch between former President Trump and President Joe Biden in 2024 would mark the sixth presidential rematch in US history, with the last one occurring in the 1950s.

Candidates Face Hurdles in Comeback Attempts

The analysis by NBC News stated, “…the track record of rematches at the statewide level during that time paints a clear picture of the hurdles candidates face when they make comeback attempts. In 25 Senate rematches since 1950, just two ended in different results the second time, according to an analysis from the University of Virginia Center for Politics.”

Gubernatorial Rematches Show the Same Patterns

Editorial credit: Sharaf Maksumov / Shutterstock.

The analysis continued, “And of 44 gubernatorial rematch elections since 1950, just 14 (31%) had different results the second time around.”

Only 16 Victories in 69 Rematches

NBC News then pointed out that they had calculated only “16 victories in 69 rematch tries for the candidates who lost the previous elections” while stating that “the same factors that shaped those races will affect 2024’s, too.”

Winner Usually Comes From the Dominant Party

The analysis underscored that the victor of the initial election preceding a rematch comes from the predominant party in a state or district.

No Dominant Party on a National Level

The analysis highlighted, “On the national level, there’s no dominant party — Democrats control the Senate and the White House, but Republicans are in charge of the House, and control of all three has flip-flopped over the years.” However, the same factors could be applied to a Presidential Rematch if state elections were analyzed.

It Doesn’t Create Invincibility

David Karol, professor of Politics at Maryland University, told NBC News, “The winner on the first round, by definition, is the incumbent in the rematch. It’s not constant over time and doesn’t create invincibility, but it’s a factor that’s helpful,” he said. “On average, the incumbent wins by more than they did the first time if they win again,” Karol agreed with the analysis and pointed to statewide elections where the incumbent usually sees reelection victory.

An Incumbent Versus a Former President

Editorial Credit: RozenskiP/Shutterstock.

Nevertheless, a distinctive factor emphasized in the article is that a potential presidential rematch between Biden and Trump differs from the typical incumbent versus presidential hopeful dynamic—it involves an incumbent facing off against a former president.

The Challenger Has Increased Odds

In better news for Trump, the analysis stated, “In fact, in the few examples of rematch elections between two former incumbents, the challenger does have better odds of prevailing.”

The Election of 1892 Cleveland vs. Harrison

Editorial credit: Everett Collection / Shutterstock.

The analysis then used the Presidential election of Cleveland in 1892 as an example. “That year, former President Grover Cleveland sought to beat President Benjamin Harrison, who had defeated him four years before. Cleveland won after he criticized the Harrison administration for its fiscal policy.”

A Political Moment Like No Other

Editorial Credit: lev radin/Shutterstock.

Professor David Karol cautioned NBC News, noting that the current political landscape is unparalleled. He highlighted factors such as President Biden’s low approval ratings and apprehensions about age and fitness and pointed out multiple indictments against Trump. These elements could significantly influence the direction voters lean in an upcoming election.

It’s a Historic First

Editorial credit: mark reinstein/Shutterstock.

Karol told NBC News, “Is Trump unique? Yeah, Trump is unique. We’ve never had a situation like this… It’s a historic first.” Both Trump and Biden have etched their names into the history books without a doubt.

First Former President in History to Face Federal Charges

Trump stands out as the inaugural former President in US history to confront federal charges. These charges encompass intentionally retaining national defense secrets, breaching the Espionage Act, and engaging in a conspiracy to obstruct justice.

First Former President to Engage in Insurrection

Editorial credit: 72westy / Shutterstock.

Trump has recently achieved another unprecedented milestone as the first presidential candidate to be determined by a court to have participated in an insurrection. A Colorado judge recently ruled that the former President engaged in insurrection during the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. This marks the initial legal verdict determining that the former President incited insurrection through his actions, with other trials still underway.

Biden, the Oldest President in History

President Biden has secured a place in history as the oldest incumbent President, having recently observed his 81st birthday. Biden assumed office in 2021 at the age of 78.

Reagan Was 77 at the End of His Presidency

The only former President who approached Biden’s age was Ronald Reagan, who was inaugurated at 69 and concluded his two-term presidency at 77. Reagan went on to live until the age of 93.

There’s No Shortage of Incumbents Who Win

Users went online to comment on Trump’s hurdles in a Presidential rematch. One user posted, “There’s no shortage of incumbents who win.” Another said, “But not always, be forewarned!”