As the deadline for setting the 2024 budget looms, so does the prospect of a government shutdown. As the Republicans control the House, they know they’ll be blamed if a shutdown does occur, and yet they seem content to let it happen despite the consequences.
The 2024 Budget
The House of Representatives is currently gridlocked due to the tiny majority Republicans wield, meaning that only a few members of the party have to vote against legislation to create a holdup. The House needs to pass the budget for 2024 in order to keep the government running, as it’s currently only funded through November 17 after a shutdown was averted in September.
Republicans to Blame
“I think the governing majority, which is presiding at the time the government shuts down, probably is going to bear a lot of the blame,” suggested Steve Womack, a Republican Rep. from Arkansas.
“The Ones With the Gavel”
Womack admitted that Republicans are currently “the ones with the gavel,” as they possess 221 lawmakers in the chamber to the Democrats 212.
The Potential Ramifications
The stakes are high for Americans, as the government will shut down if no budget agreement is reached, causing nationwide disruption.
“A Blow to National Security”
Individuals have weighed in on the consequences of a government shutdown. Pennsylvania Representative Brian Fitzpatrick experienced the effects of a government shutdown while working for the FBI. He called such events a blow to national security and detrimental to federal workers’ livelihoods.
The FBI Perspective
Fitzpatrick shared how he’d had his cases “shut down because there’s a gap in coverage on an investigation” when suffering under shutdowns as an FBI agent.
Impact on Federal Government Agencies
Several government agencies, such as the Commerce Department, National Institutes of Health, and Federal Communications Commission, are all preparing to temporarily suspend major ongoing efforts.
Worst Case Scenario
A US government shutdown could limit the manufacturing of microchips and the conduct of important research, and mean that customer complaints don’t get resolved for a longer period. National parks could shut down, too, meaning the effects would be felt by many people in different walks of life.
Republican Majority
After they reclaimed the House in the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans hold the majority in the lower chamber, meaning whether the budget fails will be up to them. Therefore, they will shoulder most of the blame if the government has to shut down.
Unhappy Voters
Republican representatives will be easy, and arguably blameworthy, scapegoats for angry voters if the government shutdown goes ahead. People may criticize them for prioritizing their right-wing values over compromise with Democrats. This could have long-term consequences, as people may remember this when representatives are next up for reelection.
An Economic Downturn
Many people online have commented about what a government shutdown would mean. “It often can spark an economic downturn because the government employs a LOT of people who suddenly won’t be getting any paychecks or doing their jobs,” one forum commenter explained.
The Role of the Senate
One person spotlighted the fact that even if the House passed a more right-wing budget, it still has to be approved by the Senate and President. “Most mainline Republicans do not want a shutdown,” they said. “Many of them may prefer the more harsh spending cuts that the Freedom Caucus wing is demanding, but they understand that it wouldn’t have a chance of passing through the Senate. They would rather get a small win than a big loss.”
A Republican Special
Several people pointed out that the GOP has caused shutdowns on numerous occasions. “Republicans do this every time they don’t control the presidency,” one user stated. “Mitch McConnell publicly said the debt ceiling “is a hostage worth taking” after they did it decades ago and got concessions from Democrats. They have done it since.”
Debating the Odds
People have discussed the chances that the shutdown will proceed. “It feels pretty likely,” one person speculated. “Previous shutdowns came with rhetoric that no one wants this, it’s [the other side]’s fault, and we can start the government back up if [other side] stops being unreasonable.”
Different Circumstances
They continued, “This time, the folks pushing this have publicly stated that a shutdown is the whole point in order to inflict pain. I don’t feel like they’re bluffing but maybe I’m buying too much into the theater. Their base seems to be eating it up so there’s no reason to think they’ll blink.”
The Media Attention
‘In the past up to the point of shutdown they at least gave the appearance of attempting to prevent it,” one commenter wrote. “This time around they seem to be relishing the media attention and doubling down on the rhetoric to encourage one.” They also expressed fears that a government shutdown would last longer than previous ones.
“Republicans versus Republicans”
“When the previous shutdowns were Republicans versus Democrats I could see they might not have happened,” one person shared. “This time it’s Republicans versus Republicans,” they elaborated, referring to the GOP members that are pushing for a more hardline bill than the one Republicans are offering. “There is no way this isn’t going to be a shutdown,” they concluded.
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